Rosie Eade

UK Met Office

10:30am, May 24, 2017

Room 319, Building 40, IAP

Seasonal to decadal predictability: Current seasonal to decadal forecasting systems can exhibit good skill at predicting phenomenoms such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, there is a mismatch between the correlation of the model predictions (with past observations) and the noise within the model system. This means that climate models may underestimate the predictability of the real world in key regions.

NAO Decadal variability: The observed NAO exhibits changes in variability on decadal timescales in terms of mean, standard deviation and trend. Despite the promising skill of NAO seasonal forecasts, current models struggle to capture the extent of the long-term variability observed.