[Seminar on March 20] How well does the Met Office model predict West Pacific tropical cyclones?
Dr. Nicholas Klingaman
Reading University, UK
Room 1118, Building 3, IAP
9 am, March 20, 2019
This talk reviews the performance of the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for predicting tropical cyclones in the West Pacific. We analyse 12 years of operational global forecasts (2006-2017) to reveal improvements in the predictions of cyclone tracks, intensities and associated precipitation. We also analyse how forecast skill for cyclone characteristics changes based on the phases of large-scale tropical climate variability, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Finally, we introduce a new atmosphere-ocean coupled configuration of the Met Office NWP model to reveal whether adding air-sea interactions improves predictions of West Pacific cyclones.