Nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV) approach is a useful non-linear technique for exploring the second predictability problems introduced by model errors. Based on Zebiak-Cane model, the time-dependent forcing singular vector-type tendency errors are explored. The results emphasized that the time-dependent NFSV-type tendency error of a particular spatial structure is most likely to cause large prediction errors. This paper features a new approach and its resultant new results.

Citation:  Zhao, P., and W.-S. Duan, 2014: Time-dependent nonlinear forcing singular vector-type tendency error of the Zebiak-Cane model, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 7, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.14.0026.

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The NFSVs of the Ref-1 El Ni？o event (units: °C/10 days; 10 days is the time step of the numerical integration of the Zebiak-Cane model): (a1) NFSV-1; (b1–b4) the four components of NFSV-4; (c1–c12) the twelve components of NFSV-12.