The western North Pacific (WNP) subtropical high (WNPSH) plays a crucial role in linking East Asian summer climate and ENSO. Better understanding the predictability of the WNPSH is of central importance to the East Asian seasonal climate prediction.

Scientists from Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) performed a comprehensive assessment on the predictability of the WNPSH using state-of –the-art coupled models. Their work suggests that current coupled models show quite good capability in describing the variation of subtropical high, but exhibit different prediction skills during different ENSO phases. It is pointed out that the models well capture the WNPSH during most of years in different ENSO phases except the La Ni？a decaying summers, even the neutral summers with no ENSO signals (Fig. 1). It provides an important implication for further improving the summer prediction of the WNPSH and East Asian rainfall.

Their findings have been published in Climate Dynamics in 2014 and 2012.

References:

Li, C., R. Lu, and B. Dong, 2014: Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate associated with different ENSO phases by ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts. Clim. Dyn., 43, 1829-1845. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-2010-7.

Li, C., R. Lu, and B. Dong, 2012: Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES. Clim. Dyn., 39, 329-346. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1274-z.

Fig. 1 Prediction skill of the western North Pacific subtropical high during different ENSO phases for the prediction systems (MME: multi-model ensemble).