Energy consumption for heating and cooling in the household sector accounts for nearly 20% of the total energy consumption in China. Under the background of global warming, warmer climate conditions are expected to lead to a decrease in energy demand in winter and an increase in summer. So how will energy consumption change in the future in China? 

The simplest way to estimate the relationship between household energy consumption and temperature is using the concept of degree day, and specifically heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD, respectively). In a recently published research, Dr. GAO Xuejie from Institute of Atmospheric Physics worked jointly with other scientists from National Climate Center of China, Italy, and Sweden, and reported future changes of HDD and CDD in the 21st century over mainland China, based on regional climate model simulations.  

Direct analysis show a substantial decrease in HDD and increase in CDD in the future. Considering the final energy consumption is largely depended by the population distribution, the changes are further weighted by population projections for a first-order assessment of future changes in energy demand. A larger decrease in population-weighted regional mean HDD compared to the increase in CDD is projected, indicating a decrease of about 15% in potential energy demand for different periods and scenarios in the future. In addition, the simulations show a marked spatial heterogeneity in the change in energy demand.  

"In particular, we found increases in both heating and cooling demand in parts of northern China due to the increased population there, an increase in cooling demand in the south and decreases in heating demand in the northernmost and western regions." Explained Dr. GAO, “Furthermore, we also find a seasonal shift occurs, with increasing demand in summer and a decrease in winter.”