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[Seminar on Jan 10] New Advances in Land Carbon Cycle Modeling

Prof. Yiqi Luo

Northern Arizona University, USA/ Tsinghua University, China

Room 303, Keyan Building

10am, Jan. 10, 2018

The trajectory of land carbon stocks and fluxes has tremendous implications for predicting future climates. The three largest components of uncertainty for climate forecasting are (1) future fossil fuel emissions, (2) physical climate sensitivity and (3) the future behavior of land C sources and sinks.To date, the magnitude of the land C sink has been indirectlydeduced, by combining analyses of atmospheric CO2 concentrations with ocean observations to infer the net land C flux. In contrast, when knowledge about the terrestrial C cycle is integrated into different ESMs, they make widely different predictions, either in direction or magnitude, and fit observations poorly. In this talk, I will introduce our recent work related to the new mathematic foundation for land carbon storage dynamics; a matrix approach to land carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus modeling; a unified diagnostic system for full understanding of uncertainty sources; carbon cycle data assimilation system with both flux- and pool-based data; and semi-analytic spin-up for computational efficiency.

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