Dr. Tao Lian
Second Institute of Oceanography, the State Oceanic Administration
Room 1118, Building 3, IAP
15:00, April 19, 2019
The westerly wind burst (WWB) in the equatorial Pacific strongly impacts on the genesis and diversity of El Ni？o, as manifested by its crucial role in the 2014-2016 El Ni？o events. However, the origin of WWB is still far from clear, rendering El Ni？o prediction a persistently challenging task. Here we confirm a robust linkage between WWB and tropical cyclone (TC) from a set of observational and reanalysis data. Specifically, about 69% of WWBs were closely associated with TCs in the western tropical Pacific, and the three-dimensional structure of WWBs highly resembled that of TCs. Such a close relationship readily explains not only the unidirectional and intermittent nature of WWBs, but also the state-dependency, seasonality and spatial distribution of these bursts. An important implication is that, with skillful seasonal forecast of WWB-associated TCs, we may be able to predict the seasonal activity of WWBs and thus improve El Ni？o prediction.