The remarkably amplified warming over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia may have a common dynamical origin—The Silk Road Pattern (SRP)—according to Prof. Shuanglin Li, Dean of Atmospheric Science at the University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Executive Vice-Director at the Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, and one of the authors of a recently published study.

By using a quantitative diagnostic analysis based on CFRAM (the Climate Feedback–Response Analysis method), Prof. LI Shuanglin and his team—a group of researchers from the Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, and the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Geosciences (Wuhan)—have had their findings published in Advances of Atmospheric Sciences.

"The enhanced warming over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia is primarily attributable to changes in the radiative processes. The radiative processes are dominated by the clouds, followed by the CO2 concentration and water vapor content, accounting for 62.4% and 95.1% of the warming over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia, respectively", the lead author Dr. SUN Xueqian says. "In comparison, the non-radiative processes made a much weaker contribution due to the combined impact of surface sensible heat flux, surface latent heat flux, and dynamical processes", she adds.

According to the authors, the resemblance between the influential factors for the amplified warming in these two separated regions implies a common dynamical origin. The SRP caused cloud cover to decrease over both Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia after the mid-1990s. The reduced cloud cover led to amplified warming over these two regions through increased radiative flux reaching the ground, suggesting a substantial role of the dynamical descending motion.

"CFRAM cannot provide a clear explanation of the dynamic processes. Whether other physical processes join to modulate the radiative processes influencing SAT over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia is unclear. Moreover, the sea-ice reduction over the Arctic plays a role that cannot be excluded. Further work is needed", Prof. LI adds.

Reference: Sun, X. Q., S. L. Li, and B. Liu, 2019: Comparative analysis of the mechanisms of intensified summer warming over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s through a process-based decomposition method. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 36(12), https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-9053-6.

Contact: Ms. LIN Zheng, jennylin@mail.iap.ac.cn